MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-28T00:26:36
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 has been largely at background levels. Throughout the period the solar wind is expected to be at slightly elevated to elevated levels, with the flux gradually increasing to mainly moderate levels, perhaps peaking at high levels during day 4 (31st).
The associated electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold through the period, but with an increasing trend. This is supported by both REFM and recurrence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-10-28T00:26:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |