Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-27T00:20:45

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been either background or moderate in the past 24 hours, likely due to the waning influence of CH34/- and the relaxation of the van allen belts from the reducing solar wind speed. Electron flux levels are expected to rise in coming days due to the previous charging of the electron fields from CH34/-, with slight chance of high levels of flux on day 1 (27th) before the next HSS arrives either late on day 1 or during day 2 (27th or 28th), likely having a similar suppression effect and compressing the radiation belts for perhaps several days.

Electron fluence values are expected to continue on an upward trend in line with apparent increasing flux levels, with a slight chance of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold day 1 (27th).