Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-26T00:17:55

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been close to background levels through the last 24 hours, likely due to the compression exerted on the radiation belts from the current high speed stream (HSS). This is likely to be compressing of the Van-Allen belts forcing high energy electrons out of their natural orbits, resulting in the measurements observed at GEO by the GOES-16 satellite. As the high speed stream continue to decline then electron flux levels are quite likely to move towards higher levels as the belts relax and electron inputs from the high speed stream become evident. The next HSS arriving by 28 October may then have a similar effect of distorting the radiation belts.

Electron fluence values are expected to continue on an upward trend in line with apparent increasing flux levels, with a trend towards the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold towards the end of the forecast period, and this is reflected in the increasing probabilities in the guidance table above