Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-25T00:24:23

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been close to background levels through the last 24 hours, likely due to the compression exerted on the radiation belts from the current high speed stream. This is likely to be compressing the belts out of their natural orbits, resulting in the measurements observed at GOES-16. As the high speed stream eases, likely on 26 October, electron flux levels are expected to increase towards high levels as the belts relax and electron inputs from the high speed stream become evident. The next high speed stream on 28 October may then have a similar effect of distorting the radiation belts.

Electron fluence values are expected to start increase from 26 October in line with apparent increasing flux levels, with a trend towards the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by the end of the forecast period.