Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-24T00:23:57

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) fell sharply from high to background levels over the last 48 hours, likely due to the compression of the radiation belts out of their natural orbits in the presence of an elevated high speed stream. This high speed stream is expected to input further particles into the belts, which should then relax into their natural orbits from later on 25 through to 27 October as the high speed stream from coronal hole 34 wanes. Electron flux is expected to increasingly reach High (1e3pfu) levels by the end of the period.

Electron fluence values are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) on 24 October and for much of 25 October. The fluence is then expected to increase rapidly in line with a sharp increase in the flux from later on 25 October, with a chance of the Active threshold being reached.