Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-23T00:14:29

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been predominantly background on the 22nd. The High Speed Stream from CH34/- is likely to become established on day 1 (23rd). There is significant uncertainty on both the timing and strength of this arrival, and hence in any subsequent increase in the observed electron flux. As solar wind pressure likely eases through day 3 and day 4 (25th and 26th), flux levels are likely to rise and are expected to become mainly High by the end of the period.  

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below Active, but rising late in the period, especially as solar winds ease. There is a chance of Active fluence by day 4 (26th). REFM is providing good guidance until T+24, but should be used cautiously beyond this due to the potential earlier fast wind arrival compared to persistence.