Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-21T00:15:25

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has exhibited a diurnal variation between Low and Moderate levels on a day-by-day basis. However, flux briefly reached High levels, with a peak of 1290 pfu recorded at 20/1425 UTC. 

Solar winds are gradually easing to near background levels. Peak flux levels are not expected to significantly rise again until beyond this period, and potentially suppressed to background should any fast winds from CH34/- materialise by days 3 and 4 (23-24 Oct). 

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8), with REFM considered to be giving a good forecast trend.