MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-20T00:09:29
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has exhibited a diurnal variation between Low and Moderate levels on a day-by-day basis. Solar winds have now eased to near background levels, with no notable increase in electron flux levels as the Van Allen Belts relax back to GEO. Peak flux levels are not expected to significantly rise again until beyond this period, and potentially suppressed to background should any fast winds from CH33/+ and CH34/- materialise during the period.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8), with REFM considered to be giving a good forecast trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-10-20T00:09:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |