Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-19T00:16:00

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 peaked short of High (1000 pfu) levels in the past 24 hours. A further increase in the coming days is possible as the current HSS from CH32 wanes. A new HSS from CH33 is expected to arrive later in the period, although this is likely to be weak and may not have much effect on electron levels.

Fluence levels are expected to rise through this period, perhaps close to the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. MOSWOC REFM is suggesting a rise close to the Active threshold and this seems to be an over estimate although confidence in the magnitude of the peak fluence level is low.