Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-17T00:08:31

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 saw an increase in its diurnal oscillation in the past 24 hours, such that the chances of breaching Active 24-hour integrated fluence are now increased. The latest MOSWOC REFM has moved towards this idea, with 72-hour fluence now predicted to be narrowly short of 1e8 integrated pfu.

It is considered quite likely that the magnitude of the diurnal oscillation in flux should increase again over the coming 24 hours, with the current fast wind from CH32 now mature and geomagnetic activity beginning to become more reliably Quiet to Unsettled - as opposed to Active. The chances of Active fluence therefore increase early in the coming working week, saturating by midweek but probably slightly below the requisite Active threshold. This forecast carries low confidence, as the current fast wind from CH32 is of greater magnitude compared to last pass.

CH32 is expected to be the only feature impinging on the forecast in the period, with CH33 too distant and with all observed CMEs likely to miss Earth.