Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-15T00:15:00

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been at background, having dropped out due to impact of the recent fast wind arrival from CH32/-. Electron flux is expected to increase again as solar winds ease, rising to Moderate, and perhaps reaching High at diurnal peak, although with low confidence.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is likely to remain below the Active level, but with a rising trend as flux levels increase. There is a chance that this may approach, or perhaps exceed Active by day 3 or day 4. REFM has yet to correct for the current fast winds, so is unreliable, despite also suggesting that fluence levels will remain below the Active level.