Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-13T12:19:58

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 has been Moderate to High (above 1000 pfu). With no significant solar wind enhancement expected until the arrival of the fast winds of CH32/- late day 2 (14th) or during day 3 (15th) then these levels are expected to persist for much of the period, albeit with peak flux levels declining. There is the potential for drop out later day 2 or during day 3 (14th or 15th) from any fast wind arrival or peripheral CME influence, however this is low confidence.

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist at Active (above 1e8 integrated pfu), at least during days 1 and 2 (13th and 14th), and potentially beyond. Any flux drop out later in the period may bring a chance of fluence levels falling below the Active level by day 4 (16th). The current REFM forecast is currently producing poor guidance, and so should be disregarded, although this does show the potential for fluence values to gradually decline.