Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-13T00:25:07

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES16 is currently High (above 1000 pfu). With no significant solar wind enhancement expected until the arrival of the fast winds of CH32/- late tomorrow (14th) or during day 3 (15th) then these levels are expected to persist for much of the period, albeit with a chance of the peak flux declining. If any geomagnetic activity occurs as a result of the HSS arrival, or potential weak influence of a passing CME, then flux levels are likely to drop out to Background to Moderate.

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist at Active (above 1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the period, only significantly falling in response to any flux drop out later in the period. The current REFM forecast is currently producing poor guidance, and so should be disregarded.