Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-12T00:28:55

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES 16 is currently high (1e3 pfu) and is likely to remain at mainly high levels on 12 October as the recent coronal hole high speed stream begins to wane. The diurnal peaks of the flux are then expected to reduce through the forecast period, and increasingly vary between moderate and high levels, but any increased geomagnetic activity could briefly inhibit electron flux within the radiation belts.

Fluence is currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is likely to continue above through the next four days, with limited potential for significant reductions in electron values.