Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-11T00:09:24

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES16 is currently High and is likely to range between Moderate and High through the coming days. Glancing CME effects are possible late on day 1 or early on day 2, which may give a reduction in flux however.

Fluence is currently above Active (1e8 integrated pfu). Given that the threat of significant geomagnetic activity is greatest earlier on in the four-day forecast period, the chances of the current diurnal oscillation being disturbed or re-set at lower flux levels is highest late on day 1 or during day 2. Should this not occur, fluence is likely to remain Active, although with decreasing confidence in the coming days.

Overall, Active fluence is considered likely until day 4 (14th).