Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-10T00:17:52

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES16 has proved quite resilient to periods of Active geomagnetic activity seen in the past few days, and has continued a marginal but persistent trend about High flux, which has resulted in a flat fluence trend slightly above Active.

Given that the threat of significant geomagnetic activity is greatest earlier on in the four-day forecast period (from the incumbent fast wind from CH29), the chances of the current diurnal oscillation being disturbed or re-set at lower flux levels is highest to start the working week. Should this not occur, flux and fluence could well survive the period relatively unaltered, although given the extreme proximity of the fluence to the threshold, this still only offers relatively low confidence in remaining so, as even a very minor change may result in a lasting exit from Active.

Overall, Active fluence is considered 'odds on' throughout, although this is only slightly better than 'evens' beyond the immediate term for reasons described above.