Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-09T00:21:39

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES16 has persisted at Moderate to High levels in the last 24 hours. A potential suppression is possible day 1 (9th) alongside any geomagnetic activity that occurs the transition into the fast wind arrival of CH29, but likely recovering later day 1 or day 2 (9th or 10th) if this occurs. Otherwise further periods of High are likely each day.  

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is likely to persist at Active levels for much of the period despite any potential suppression of flux day 1 (9th), albeit with decreasing confidence. REFM is currently giving poor guidance after T+24, and should be disregarded beyond this period.