Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-08T00:29:03

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has persisted at Moderate to High levels in the last 24 hours, and little change is anticipated at first. A potential suppression is possible later day 1 and during day 2 from any fast wind arrival of CH29, however this is both low confidence and expected to be relatively weak should it occur. Otherwise, only a gradual decline in peak fluxes is expected, with further periods of High likely each day.  

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is forecast to remain Active day 1 (8th) and into day 2 (9th). Confidence then falls due to any suppression of flux that occurs from CH29 fast wind arrival, however Active levels are expected to persist. REFM is currently giving poor guidance after T+24, and should be disregarded beyond this period.