Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-07T00:26:26

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as measured by GOES-16 has recently been suppressed due to the glancing CME influences observed late on the 5th and early 6th, though electron counts have generally risen today, with a period of high flux levels being observed at diurnal maxima. A further possible CME arrival early day 1 (7th) has the potential to suppress observed values until any effects from this eases later day 1 or on day 2 (8th). As solar winds ease, especially into day 2 and day 3 (9th), there is an increasing chance of high flux levels being observed more persistently, although this is likely to again become suppressed from any fast wind arrival from CH29 late day 3 or  day 4 (10th). 

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold day 1 (6th). Any potential rise above Active day 1 (7th) will be dependent upon the extent and duration of any CME impact. However, flux is likely to rise sufficiently by day 2 and 3 to give a period of Active Fluence before the arrival of the fast wind of CH29 suppresses observed flux levels again later in the period. REFM is likely giving poor guidance at the moment, due to its inability to account for the recent peripheral CME influence, along with the potential CME arrival early on day 1.