MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-06T00:30:00
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has reached high (1e3 pfu) levels in the last 24 hours and is expected to continue to oscillate between moderate and high levels through the next four days, with brief dips in periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity.
Electron fluence levels are expected to follow a rise towards the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, based on the heightened flux environment.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-10-06T00:30:00 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 5% |