Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-04T00:18:42

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux has been at background to moderate levels. Any rise in electron flux due to the slightly elevated wind speeds may be complicated by potential CME influence on day 1 (4th), which could then suppress electron levels. Once any CME influence subsides, or if the arrivals are weak/don't materialise, then flux levels are expected to become increasingly High, from day 1 (4th), but particularly day 2 (5th) onward. If no CME arrival occurs, increasingly prolonged periods of high flux are possible from later day 1 (4th) onward 

The associated electron 24 hour fluence is likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a rising trend and with some significant uncertainty due to the potential CME glances. Should these miss, there is the potential for electron fluence to rise close to, or above, Active by days 3 and 4 (6th and 7th). REFM is currently giving generally good guidance for an upwards trend, but only in the absence of any CME arrival.