Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-03T00:33:19

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux has been at background levels. A rise in electron flux is expected due to the recent arrival fo the fast wind CH28, however this will be complicated by the potential CME arrivals later day 1 or day 2 (3rd-4th), which would then suppress electron levels. Once any CME influence subsides, or if the arrivals are weak, then flux levels are expected to become increasingly High, from day 2 (4th), but particularly day 3 (5th) onward. If no CME arrival occurs, increasingly prolonged periods of high flux is possible from later day 1 (3rd) onward 

The associated electron 24 hour fluence is likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a rising trend and with some significant uncertainty due to the potential CME glances. Should these miss, there is the potential for electron flux to rise to Active early in the period, but most likely rising above this level as solar winds ease through days 3 and 4 (5th and 6th). REFM is currently giving good guidance for an upwards trend, but only in the absence of any CME arrival.