Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-02T00:09:44

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 has been at background levels. A rise in electron flux may occur once the fast winds from CH28 start to ease, although the peak winds from this feature are either late or not going to be as strong as originally forecast. However, this will be complicated by the potential for 2 CME arrivals on Days 2 or 3 (03-04 Oct) which would suppress electron levels. If the CME arrival(s) do not occur, a rise is possible during this period but confidence is low.

The associated electron 24 hour fluence is likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but perhaps with a rising trend. MOSWOC REFM is currently forecasting a slight rise below Active levels, but will not be taking account of any CME arrival.