Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-10-01T00:12:41

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 has been largely at background levels. The next significant rise in high energy electrons is anticipated to be once the fast winds from CH27/+ and CH28/+ become established, most likely from day 2 (2nd). However, building electron counts will be complicated by the potential CME arrival tomorrow (1st Oct). Further geomagnetic enhancements from a CME arrival would help to suppress high electron flux levels. and therefore peak values of over 10000 pfu may not occur until day 3 (3rd).

The associated electron 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold until at least day 3 (3rd), while on a generally increasing trend. The REFM is currently over-estimating fluence values, which does not aid confidence in the fluence rising above the Active threshold by late day 2 (2nd). Instead a potential rise in the fluence to breach the Active threshold is preferred for days 3 and 4.