Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-29T12:24:11

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 has been largely at background levels following the increased geomagnetic activity associated with recent fast wind and CME influences, which have allowed electron populations in the Van Allen belts to be re-distributed. The next significant rise is anticipated to be once the fast wind from CH27/+ and CH28/+ become established likely later day 2 (30th) and through day 3 (1st Oct), although any rise will be complicated by the potential CME arrival on day 3 (1st Oct). High electron flux is expected to become increasingly persistent, with peak values of over 10000 pfu possible, as observed on the previous solar rotation from these features.

The associated electron 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold until at least day 3 (1st). Fluence is then expected to rise, likely above the Active threshold day 4 (2nd) but potentially day 3 (1st). REFM is currently giving good short term trend guidance, but likely poor beyond T+24, increasing fluence values too soon.