Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-28T00:13:08

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 has been largely at background levels following the increased geomagnetic activity associated with HSS and CME influences, which have allowed electron populations in the Van Allen belts to be re-distributed. The next significant rise is anticipated to be once the HSS from CH27/+ becomes established near the end of the period.

The associated electron 24 hour fluence is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a likely rising toward the end of the period. REFM is currently considered to be giving poor short term trend guidance, though longer term trends are considered more likely, these probably staying below Active fluence.