Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-27T00:08:37

The high energy (greater tan 2MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 has been varying between Moderate and High levels, but has recently dropped likely due to the recent arrival of the HSS from CH26 combined with some possible weak CME influence. As such peak values on Day 1 (27 Sep) are likely to be lower than recent values. Any response to the incoming HSS is unlikely to occur until near the end of the period.

The associated electron 24 hour fluence is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but is currently close to Active and there is just a slight chance of rising above during Day 1. Subsequent fluence levels depend strongly on how fast the wind speed associated with CH26 becomes, and any geomagnetic activity associated with it. However, fluence levels are most likely to drop in the short term, with a rise possible towards the end of the period. REFM is currently under estimating fluence levels, however the trend for below Active fluence is considered reasonable.