Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-26T00:09:40

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES16, has declined from High to Moderate levels. 

Following the recent coronal hole influence of CH25/+ electron populations in Earth's Van Allen belts have risen a little, with High flux levels perhaps developing during the diurnal maximum during day 1 (26th). Confidence in the forecast is low due to a possible glancing CME influence on day 1 (26th).

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period, although with an initial rising trend, and this is reflected in the probability figures given in the table above. MOSWOC REFM looks to be giving reasonable guidance in the coming few days and is tentatively accepted.