MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-25T00:15:23
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES16, is currently in the Normal Background to Moderate range.
The current influence of CH25/+ is lifting electron populations in Earth's Van Allen belts, with High flux levels perhaps developing during the diurnal maximum during days one and two (25 and 26 September). Confidence in the forecast is lowered due to possible glancing CME influence perhaps from late on 25th, and into 26th.
The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period, and this is reflected in the probability figures given in the table above. MOSWOC REFM looks to be giving better guidance now and is tentatively accepted over the next few days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-09-25T00:15:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |