Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-24T00:21:09

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES16, is currently in the Normal Background to Moderate range.

The arrival of the fast wind of CH25/+ will probably enhance electron populations at Earth, with High flux levels perhaps developing during days two and three (25 and 26 September) once initial geomagnetic activity subsides. Confidence in this occurring is now dented by the possible pollution by faint partial halo CMEs - one from 21 September and one from 22 September, with the latter the more likely to be impactful, perhaps sweeping up its forerunning sibling in a united front.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through most the period, but possibly rising above for a time in the possible lull between CH25/+'s incidence and any later CMEs.

MOSWOC REFM is not considered useful in the above scenario, given differences in CH25/+'s appearance to last pass and the presence of up to two transients later in the period.