Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-22T00:17:47

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16, is currently Background to Moderate. The arrival of the fast wind of CH25/-  on day 2 (23rd) is expected to enhance electron populations at Earth, with High flux levels likely to develop once any initial geomagnetic activity subsides, through days 3 and 4 (23rd and 24th).

The associated 24 hr fluence is expected to remain below the Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) threshold until day 3 (24th), with REFM giving a good guide to current conditions and trends until at least day 2 (23rd). However the expected fast wind arrival is likely to be stronger than persistence suggests, limiting the models performance beyond this date. Increasing flux later days 3 and 4 (23rd and 24th) is likely to bring Active fluence by the end of the period.