Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-21T00:13:14

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16, is currently Background to Moderate with only a muted response from the recent fast wind from CH23/-. The arrival of the fast wind of CH25/- later day 2 (22nd) or day 3 (23rd) is likely to result in a stronger geomagnetic response, and subsequently High flux is likely to develop day 4 (24th).

The associated 24 hr fluence is expected to remain below the Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) threshold until day 4 (24th), with REFM giving a good guide to current conditions and trends until at least day 3 (23rd). However the expected fast wind arrival is likely to be stronger than persistence suggests, limiting the models performance beyond this date. Increasing flux later day 3 (23rd) and during day 4 (24th) is likely to bring Active fluence by the end of the period,