MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-20T00:09:52
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16, is currently at Background to Moderate levels. Flux levels have not responded to the current high speed stream, and seem unlikely to now rise to High levels until late in the period, when the next potentially stronger high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
The associated 24 hr fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, albeit with a likely rising trend late in the period. REFM is also indicating levels remaining below Active, and is considered to be giving good guidance at present.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-09-20T00:09:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |