MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-19T00:15:16
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16, is currently at Background to Moderate levels. Flux levels are expected to rise either ion day 1 (19th) or potentially day 2 (20th). This may result in flux reaching High at diurnal maximum, but due to the relatively limited connection expected to CH23 alongside only possible glancing CME interaction, persistently high flux is only a low risk.
The associated 24 hr fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, albeit with a rising trend in response to any elevated flux. REFM has yet to show any forecast increasing trend due to recent solar wind enhancement, and whilst 27-day recurrence is currently running above the Active threshold, this was due to a much stronger fast wind connection on the last rotation.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-09-19T00:15:16 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |