Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-18T00:17:06

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue its current very modest Normal Background to Moderate flux oscillation until after the advent of CH23/- and/or CH24/-.

These fast winds had been due to arrive into the UTC weekend, but now appear likely to arrive later on day one, Sunday 18 September. The combined effects of both this fast wind and any CME from the filaments observed 15/2100UTC and 16/0100UTC should lead to an initially turbulent electron trace, eventually rising into day three, Tuesday 20 September.

Because electron fluence levels were very marginal for exceedance of the Active threshold on last pass and the synonymous feature is later and presumably slower on this outing, the chances of similar are thought to be lower. All considered, flux and fluence should rise early in the new week, with a Chance of surpassing Active from Tuesday.