Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-17T00:12:55

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue its current very modest Normal Background to Moderate flux oscillation until after the advent of CH23/- and/or CH24/-. This had been due to arrive into the UTC weekend, however there is little evidence of any fast wind either at Earth or STEREO A, the latter being 1.6 days upwind. This is also despite similar orbital latitudes of Earth and the STEREO satellite relative to the solar equator. The reason for this is not clear - the phi angle is the correct negative at present, however unless the arrival was masked by the 14/2150UTC CME, this feature is expected to be both late and accordingly less impactful.

All considered, there is now judged a Chance of surpassing Active from Monday, probably peaking belatedly on Tuesday.