Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-15T12:13:52

High energy electron flux showed a significant fall from High to Normal Background counts at GEO in the past 24 hours. This may well be the death knell of the recent protracted Active fluence - ongoing since the high speed stream of coronal hole 20, with the solar wind environment in the immediate wake of the current CME probably not supportive of high electron flux.

The forecast beyond this should show a recovery however, in an eventual response to the following fast wind from CH23/-, with Active fluence narrowly attained on the previous rotation.

Initial Active fluence should soon fall below threshold, remaining so until after the onset of CH23's fast wind, whereupon Active fluence should again become Likely once initial geomagnetism fades.