Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-15T00:29:46

High energy electron fluence (greater than 2MeV) has been at mainly high levels through the last 24 hours, but has recently fallen to background levels, due to an increase in geomagnetic activity, associated with a CME arrival. Expected ongoing geomagnetic activity from both the CME and connection to a coronal hole high speed stream are likely to suppress electron counts. The high speed stream is forecast to connect on 16 September and could also distort the radiation belts out of their natural orbits and lead to a perceived reduction on electron counts, which should recover as the wind eases.

Electron fluence is likely to follow a slowly declining trend over the next four days due to the suppression of the electron flux, although an upward trend is possible later in the period.