Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-13T00:41:38

High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux has varied between moderate and high levels through the last 24 hours, though some additions could be due to proton contamination. Otherwise, the diurnal peaks are expected to slowly fall as the radiation in the belts slowly dissipate as the solar wind eases. A potential CME arrival on either 13th or 14th September may lead to further losses due to geomagnetic enhancements, with a chance of a subsequent increase due to the injection of CME particles into the belts. A further variable is the possible arrival of CH23/- on 16th September, leading to another possible electron count reduction.

Electron fluence values are expected to follow a declining trend through the next four days, with low confidence toward the end of the period due to possible geomagnetic activity from CMEs and Coronal Hole HSS.