Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-12T00:12:27

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electrons have shown a significant response to the long-lasting duo of fast winds from CH20/+ and now CH24/+. Levels are currently fluctuating between High and Moderate, with the diurnal peak seen in the last 24 hours actually rising relative to recent days - presumably in the absence of Active geomagnetism. This is probably representative of the undamped diurnal oscillation and should be the peak for the period, with a gradual ebb of counts probably now commencing as the fast wind further wanes.

The associated 24-hour fluence levels are expected to persist above the Active threshold for much of the period, but with an increasing chance of falling below from midweek UTC with the prospect of a vestigial coronal hole (CH22/-) and perhaps the 09 September CME.

MOSWOC REFM is considered to give reasonable guidance for the overall trend at first, though perhaps a little early in its reduction below Active levels. The presence of at least one transient should render this forecast less reliable around the middle of the coming week.