Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-11T00:20:44

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electrons have shown a significant response over recent days to the long-lasting connection to coronal hole 20 fast wind, now perhaps succeeded by CH24/+. Persistent High flux levels have been observed by GOES16, with only an erratic decay of peak values. The levels are expected to very gradually decline through the first half of the period, perhaps falling more sharply with the possible advent of CH22/- and a weak CME from 10 September on day four, Wednesday 14 September.

The associated 24-hour fluence levels are expected to see a gradual fall through the period, likely persisting above the Active threshold throughout, but with an increasing chance of falling below midweek UTC.

MOSWOC REFM is considered to give reasonable guidance for the overall trend through the period, but the presence of at least one transient should render this forecast less reliable around the middle of the coming week.