MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-10T00:21:12
High energy electrons have shown a significant response over recent days to the long-lasting high speed stream from coronal hole 20, but an overall downward trend is now evident.
Fluence levels are expected to see a gradual fall through the period from Active to below Active levels, probably crossing the threshold on day 3 (12th). REFM is considered to give reasonable guidance for the overall trend through the period, although perhaps dropping levels too fast.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-09-10T00:21:12 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 10% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |