Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-09T00:14:10

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at High levels due to charging from the HSS from CH20. Flux levels are expected to remain High for much of this period, perhaps on a declining trend later in the period. However, as wind speeds are still elevated perhaps causing some compression of the Van Allen belt, a further rise cannot be ruled out as the radiation belt fully decompresses.

The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to persist above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, although later in the period a declining trend is likely. There is a Chance of reaching Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) at first.

REFM is thought to give good guidance at first, with the fluence remaining well above the Active threshold. From day 2 the REFM model is considered too be reducing the fluence too quickly, with above Active threshold values excepted to continue.