Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-08T00:09:24

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at High levels due to charging from the HSS from CH20. Flux levels are likely to remain High for much of this period, perhaps on a declining trend. However, as wind speeds are still elevated perhaps causing some compression of the van Allen belt, a further rise cannot be ruled out as the radiation belt fully decompresses.

The corresponding 24 hour fluence is likely to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through much of this period, which is supported by persistence. A declining trend is most likely, although as mentioned above a further rise cannot be ruled out, with just a slight chance of reaching Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu). REFM is thought to give good guidance, showing a slight declining trend above the Active threshold.