Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-07T00:42:48

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is expected to remain at high or moderate levels during days 1 and 2 (7th and 8th), with long periods over the 1000pfu threshold likely. Electrons will likely begin to subside from day 3 onward (9th-10th). The corresponding 24 hour fluence is expected remain above the Active threshold through during day 1 (7th), likely on day 2 (8th), before reducing to a chance on days 3 and 4 (9th and 10th).

REFM is though to give good guidance for the likely elevated levels during day 1 and 2 (7th and 8th), though confidence wanes day 3 and beyond (9th-10th) due to the waning effects of cornoal hole 20/+.