MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-05T12:06:44
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux has been moderate to high, due to the recent enhancement from the fast speed streams originating from CH19/+ and CH20/+, recharging the Van Allen belts in electron populations. Flux levels are expected to continue to rise erratically during day 1 (5th), likely remaining above high levels during days 2 to 4 (6th-8th).
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to continue displaying a rising trend, with a chance of exceeding the Active threshold from day 1 (5th) then expected from day 2 (6th) onward. This is supported the latest Met Office REFM output, although the model is currently slightly under-estimating fluence levels.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-09-05T12:06:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 5% |