Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-05T00:15:25

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux has become moderate to high, due to the recent enhancement from the fast speed streams originating from CH19/+ and CH20/+, recharging the Van Allen belts in electron populations. Flux levels are expected to continue to rise erratically during day 1 (5th), before comfortably remaining above high levels during days 2 to 4 (6th-8th).   

The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to continue displaying a rising trend, with a chance of exceeding the Active threshold from day 1 (5th) then expected from day 2 (6th) onward. This is supported the latest Met Office REFM output, although the model is currently slightly under-estimating fluence levels.