MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-03T00:15:03
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels, with no significant enhancements expected initially. The arrival of the fast speed stream originating from CH20/+ will most likely re-populate the Van Allen belts on day 2, so much so that the electron flux is likely to rise and exceed high levels during the diurnal peak on day 3, this rise perhaps becoming more permanent on day 4.
The corresponding 24 hour fluence is expected to display a sharp rising trend from day 2 (04th) onwards, with a chance of exceeding the Active threshold on day 4 (06th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-09-03T00:15:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |