Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-09-02T00:21:18

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) may exceed the high (1e3 pfu) threshold today, tomorrow and day 4 (5th) as solar winds decline and radiation belts relax into their natural orbits. However, elevated solar winds from high speed streams and potential periods of heightened geomagnetic activity are expected to inhibit the electron flux during day 3 (4th).

The corresponding 24 hour fluence levels are likely to remain below the Active threshold, with a rising trend later in the period. Therefore the REFM model is considered to be offering good guidance.