MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-31T00:25:29
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16, is expected to remain at background values through much of the period, but potentially increasing to moderate or brief high values on diurnal peaks, with an increasing likelihood as the period progresses.
The associated electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout. REFM is currently giving a good guidance, with values rising, but staying below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-08-31T00:25:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |